Bubble Watch: Three Paths to the NCAA Tournament for the UMass Minutemen

The UMass Minutemen are currently presented with the opportunity to make it to their first NCAA Tournament in 15 years.  They sit squarely on the bubble and the stretch run of the 2012-2013 begins this week.  If they can fulfill one of these three scenarios, they should be dancing in March...

Take a look at the last seven games on UMass' schedule and each team's spot in the standings: 

GROUP A: (RPI 1-50) -- GREAT WINS

--Virginia Commonwealth (39)

--Temple (41)

--Butler (14)

GROUP B: (RPI 51-150) -- SOLID WINS

--Dayton (113)

--St. Bonaventure (121)

--Xavier (79)

  

GROUP C: (RPI 150+) -- MUST WINS

--Rhode Island (193)

SCENARIO #1:

Stretch-run record: (6-1)

--ANY 7 wins

A-10 tournament wins: 0

Final record: (22-8)

I think this is the least likely scenario as it would likely include sweeping group B, two of which (@St. Bonnie's and @Xavier) are on the road, AND getting 2 out of 3 from group A.  With a final regular season record of 22-7, I do not believe that an A-10 tourney win would be necessary, seeing as the Minutemen would have three top-50 wins and really only one decently bad (but not awful) loss to George Washington whose RPI is currently at a mediocre 127.  Under these circumstances UMass would be playing with house money going into the A-10 tournament possibly as the #1 seed, with the opportunity to jump up to a 7 or 8 seed with a good performance in Brooklyn.

SCENARIO #2:

Stretch-run record: (5-2)

-- 2 Group A Wins

-- 2 Group B Wins

-- 1 Group C Win

A-10 tournament wins: 1

Final Record: (22-9)

This is the most likely scenario for the Minutemen.  It MUST include wins against two out of three from group A, AND two out of three from group B.  That would leave the Minutemen with three top-50 wins, and at least one solid road victory at  Xavier's Cintas Center (where they have lost one A-10 game in the past six seasons) or out at St. Bonaventure in Olean, NY (basically the middle of nowhere).  If this scenario played out, I would be shitting my pants going into what would be a must win in the last game of the season at rival URI(ne). A first round A-10 win would also be a necessity, as it would likely come against a lower seeded A-10 team like George Washington or Dayton.  

SCENARIO #3:

Stretch-run record: (4-3)

-- 2 Group A Wins

-- 1 Group B Win

-- 1 Group C Win

A-10 tournament wins: 2

Final Record: (22-10)

Once again this situation would require UMass to take two of three from group A. Yet, seeing as URI in group C is a must win, it would mean going disappointing 1-2 in group B.  However, this could be overcome by getting hot in Brooklyn for the A-10 tournament, where the Minutemen probably would not receive a first round bye.  Therefore, their first round opponent would likely be a 10-12 seed and their quarterfinal opponent would be a 1-4 seed.  Another win over a 1-4 seeded A-10 team would likely put the Minutemen at four top-50 RPI wins, and still not any truly bad losses.  It's pretty complicated and an unlikely scenario, but it's definitely within the realm of the possibility.  And when you support a team that has not had it's name called on selection Sunday in 15 year, even the slightest chance is worth hoping for.