I've been charged with the task of breaking down the Red Sox for this upcoming season, and although it is entirely too early to be making any sort of solid predictions I'll do my best.
2013 will be an interesting year for the Sox. With such high expectations for the other teams in the AL East, the boys from Boston have gone for the most part under the radar this offseason. Their smaller more temporary acquisitions being overshadowed by blockbuster deals and PED discussions. All in all making solid moves and having low expectations isn't a bad place for a building team to be.
As of now the lineup for the Sox goes like this:
Ellsbury CF
Victorino RF
Pedroia 2nd
Ortiz DH
Napoli 1st
Middlebrooks 3rd
Drew SS
Gomes LF
Saltalamacchia C
The starting rotation should look something like this:
Lester
Dempster
Buchholtz
Lackey
Doubront
So just looking at the roster, a few things jump out to me...
1. The lack of a dominant power bat.
Its been a while since the Sox haven't had a guy that could be counted on for mid-30 HR type numbers. I don't think Ortiz is that guy but him and Napoli might have to account for that roll. Napoli absolutely kills it at Fenway, putting up 3 HRs, 8 RBIs, and batting .462 in Boston last year. That being said, personally I would move Victorino down in the order below Middlebrooks and slide those three up a spot. Ellsbury and Pedroia provide a solid 1-2 punch at the top of the order and I like Ortiz-Napoli at 3-4.
2. Will Middlebrooks will be important.
Middlebrooks had an impressive rookie campaign last year and if the sox seriously want to contend he'll have to keep improving. When he came up last year I compared him to a young Nomar. Maybe a little bit of Boston bias but I think Middlebrooks has the potential to build himself into an elite third baseman, similar style to Longoria. As far as 2013 goes I believe Middlebrooks will play a key role in how long the Sox are able to stay in contention.
3. Injuries scare me.
And now we finally come to the biggest fault of the Red Sox for the last 5 years. The teams we put together can not...I repeat CAN NOT stay healthy. If you look at our lineup for this coming year the player with the shortest history of injuries (aside from maybe Stephen Drew...) is our catcher. Our catcher who when he was with the Braves suffered a mental breakdown and found it physically impossible to throw it to the pitcher, oh and he did have back spasms last year.
Ellsbury gets hurt almost every year (sometimes a few times) but when he plays looks like the second coming of Christ.
Victorino could be real solid but is getting up there in age and has struggled with injuries as his body ages.
Pedroia will be a key piece to keep healthy. He really serves as the spark-plug for the offense, even if he's hurt, hopefully he wont need to show us how tough he is this year.
Ortiz has been working the last few years to suppress any of the doubts in my head that he can still produce. He'll put up some solid numbers as long as he can keep his foot out of that boot for a year.
Napoli hardly has a hip. Honestly this doesn't worry me very much. The contract we signed him with is laden with incentives so I know he'll play hard until his hip completely disappears.
Middlebrooks missed some time last year but nothing huge. He'll be the rock of the lineup.
Stephen Drew is JD Drew's brother, that in itself scares me.
Gomes is interesting. We signed him earlyish this offseason to play leftfield for us. Apparently the Sox front office was unaware that he really isnt a leftfielder. At his best, Jonny (...) Gomes is a sub par DH, the man is horrendous in the field and I believe Red Sox Nation will tire of him quickly.
Saltalamacchia should be fine and even if he isnt we have THREE catchers on roster plus Mike Napoli.
After all that negative I think its important to look at our biggest offseason signing, John Farrell. Back when Farrell was the pitching coach for the Red Sox everybody loved him, this will be important in getting the team to play like it cares (unfortunately not our strong suit lately). Farrell also has an important job reworking the pitchers on staff. Lester and Buchholtz in particular need work living up to the potential they showed early in their careers. Boubront showed some good stuff last year and it'll be fun to see how he can build on that. Its important that we don't expect too much from Ryan Dempster, the man is getting old and has hung steady around 12 wins for a while now, but if we get those 12 wins they'll be much needed. Annnnnnnd the last pitcher: Lackey. Who knows? The guy is only a few years removed from being a top tier pitcher, the thing is that those years in between were brutal. My prayers are with John Farrell when it comes to working with him.
Ok, that was long...
But I still need to tell you highlights of what will happen this year...
The theme of this upcoming season for the Sox is "transition". Management will be looking to transition towards newer, cheaper, and more promising talent.
The first and most obvious transition position is at shortstop. Signing Stephen Drew to a one-year deal served as a placeholder to keep the position warm for one of their two not-quite-ready future stars. At some point in the year, even if Drew plays well, the Sox will call on either Jose Iglesias or Xander Bogaerts to step up and show they can play. This might come at September call-ups but don't expect Drew to be back in 2014.
Jacoby Ellsbury is entering into the last year of his contract with the Red Sox. I believe the that Sox have little intention of resigning him at what would be a steep price. This leaves the team with a few options. If Ellsbury is playing well and we live up to expectations and are far from contention the idea of shipping him before the July 31st deadline could be an option. They could get some good pieces from a contender, move Victorino over to center and plug Ryan Sweeney into right. If Ellsbury struggles (or gets injured) trading him is not an option. I have a feeling the Sox would give some practice reps to a younger guy, probably not replacing Ellsbury if he isn't hurt but maybe in left or right field. My favorite prospect right now who might be ready by then would be Jackie Bradley. I think Bradley will have a fine career, hopefully with the Sox.
It seems to me that, despite his consistency behind the plate and in the batters box, Jarrod Saltalamacchia is being pushed out of the Red Sox plans. The direction of the Red Sox backstop is moving towards Ryan Lavarnway. In all honesty I love Lavarnway and think he'll develop into an all-star catcher. Right now the Red Sox have three catchers on roster, not counting Napoli. I see management working Lavarnway in as much as they can, moving Salty to DH if Ortiz has struggles, and if not spending much of the year platooning.
Things the Red Sox Need to Have Happen
- Limit injury time, specifically Pedroia and Ortiz
- Bring their still young pitchers back into form
- Rally around Middlebrooks (I'm positive he's key)
- Have fun. Red Sox teams are much more fun to watch when the guys get along and want to play
Things the Red Sox Can't Afford to Let Happen
- Lackey cannot get off to a poor start
- Friggin injuries
- A lot of things, 2013 is an uphill battle. Gotta be perfect
Ok ok, that was long but I didn't even mention the bullpen. Looks pretty solid this year, disappointing that we lost Atchinson to the Mets but having both Bailey and Hanrahan should make for some fun 9th innings.
Remember everything I said. Xander Bogaerts, Ryan Lavarnway, and Jackie Bradley are the stars of the future.
